One of his backers noted that had Labor had a 36 per cent primary vote at last year’s election, it may have won government.
Either way, Labor’s primary vote remains a problem, but it’s not a new one.
So what does Eden-Monaro tell us?
A party deprived of oxygen in the middle of a crisis with a leader who struggles to cut through has held a seat against, as Joel Fitzgibbon said, “a Prime Minister who, with the Oppositions full support, has been literally spending hundreds of billions of dollars to provide support to people”.
“Hes had, of course, saturation media now for weeks. Ive never seen the advantages of incumbency so large.”
Morrison will not be losing sleep over the result.
He never predicted victory.
In his own spin, Albanese called in an “against the odds victory” but it had been 100 years since a government won an Opposition seat in a byelection. Morrison contended this from the outset to dampen expectations.
Privately, the Liberals never thought they had it in the bag. “Close but no cigar” was the prediction all last week and that’s how it has transpired.
There were other little messages within.
The town of Cobargo, the scene of Morrison’s terribly awkward post-bushfire visit in January, swung towards Liberal candidate Fiona Kotvojs.
Morrison didn’t go there during the campaign so as not to give the news channels the opportunity to drag out the footage but that didn’t mean it was a totally hostile place.
“We shook 300 hands that day but it was those two which were on the news,” said a Liberal source.
If there is one key observation from Eden-Monaro it is that despite Morrison’s popularity being as high as it is, that does not guarantee electoral success.
A strong majority believes he is doing a good job managing the crisis but their lives are not very pleasant at the moment. Insecurity and hardship abound.
This will be front of mind as the government embarks on the next politically difficult stage of the recovery.
Eden-Monaro was neither quite a repudiation of the government nor an embrace of Labor. With the two-party vote similar to last year, it showed voters are reserving their judgment for the big dance.
Home>>Politic>>Eden-Monaro was neither quite a repudiation of the government nor an embrace of Labor.
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