No, Jeff Bezos is not about to become a trillionaire.
A new swell of outrage headed toward the worlds richest man on Thursday when a few news outlets re-aggregated a months-old, flimsy projection from a small business advice platform. By midday, leading progressives like Elizabeth Warren were tweeting that Bezos is on track to become the worlds first trillionaire in the middle of a pandemic.
The dust-up as untethered from reality as it may be was a reminder of just how angry many on the left are are about the tech elites wealth, and how much Bezos has become a caricature for the countrys billionaire class. He has become an easy punching bag, and will remain one even if he doesnt indeed become a trillionaire.
Even during the market calamity the coronavirus pandemic has caused, Bezos has been consistently one of the few exceptions in the billionaire class who has always been in the green. Amazon is more essential than ever, and its stock is up 25% this year, as is Bezoss net worth. That success while the economy craters made him a target for Bernie Sanders, too on Thursday.
Bezos has become a household name over the last few years, and especially so since he became the worlds single wealthiest person. That distinction has thrust him into the spotlight,often uncomfortably, and made for unfriendly contrasts when juxtaposed against, say, working-class Amazon warehouse workers who say their employer hasnt been compensating them enough or doing enough to protect them from exposure to the coronavirus.
That might explain why an overblown prediction went viral at this very moment. Internal tensions at Amazon now involve its corporate workforce and are growing, as is Bezoss net worth, which now measures at $144 billion.
Bezoss wealth is closely tied to Amazon, which he founded in 1994 and of which he owns about 11 percent. And Amazons stock has been on absolute tear over the last five years, growing by about 560%. Bezoss net worth has closely followed. He was worth a mere $38.3 billion in May 2015.
The climb in Bezoss net worth is even more extraordinary given that he signed the worlds largest divorce settlement ever last year for $35 billion when he split with his then-wife, MacKenzie. But that loss was quickly recouped by Amazons bull run.
Bezos isnt alone. Billionaire founders of companies that are on hot streaks have found that their net worths have skyrocketed as the stock market boomed over the last decade, even for those who have pledged to begin giving away all of their money in their lifetimes. The rich also often get richer, in general, because they have better access to unique investment opportunities that the average American does not, further insulating them from downturns.
That brings us back to the viral projection about Bezoss wealth, prepared by a company called Comparisun. The methodology for its startling claim? It calculated each billionaires average growth in their net worths over the last five years and projected how much those would increase if it continued to grow at that rate.
So basically: If Amazon has another five years like its last five years, then Jeff Bezos, Comparisun claims, would be the worlds first trillionaire in 2026.
That projection makes a lot of assumptions. The American economy has been on a decade-long bull run that wont replicate easily. Past performance, as the saying goes, isnt indicative of future performance, especially given that mature companies dont typically grow by the same rate as younger companies do. Its possible that Amazon would continue this meteoric growth, but saying that Bezos is on track to do it is quite a stretch.
After all, the methodology essentially suggests that if you find a $100 bill on a sidewalk and if it took you a single second to find it then, hey, you might become a trillionaire before Jeff Bezos.
2026 is a long time away. Jeff Bezos will probably still be doing fine just and hell probably remain a symbol for the grotesquely rich, trillionaire or not.
