As ballot boxes across the US were opened, some media speculated as to whether a tie or dead heat scenario in the US election was possible.
This scenario hasn’t happened before in modern times, but on day three it looks like this situation of a 269-269 tie could still in theory play out.
The mathematical possibility of this even split first opened up on Wednesday morning when Joe Biden won one of Nebraska’s five electoral votes, with Donald Trump taking the other four.
Now all eyes are on Georgia and its 16 electoral college votes.
Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden took a narrow lead over President Donald Trump in this battleground state early today, putting the White House within his reach.
But with 99% of the votes tallied, Edison research still puts both candidates on 49.4% of the vote each.
If Donald Trump does not win in Georgia, but is successful in all the other states still counting, he could get to 269 votes, resulting in an unprecedented tie.
He’d have to win Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and the 20 electoral seats in Pennsylvania to get to 269, just one short of the necessary 270 needed to get to the White House.
Authorities in Georgia expect to have a result by tomorrow and Pennsylvania expects most ballots to be counted today.
Although the result there is also too close to call with Edison research putting the vote at 49.5% for Donald Trump and 49.2% for Joe Biden, with 95% of the vote tallied.
What happens then?
If neither candidate secures a majority of electoral college votes, this would trigger a “contingent election” under the 12th Amendment of the Constitution.
That means the House of Representatives chooses the next president, while the Senate selects the vice president.
Each state delegation in the House of Representatives gets a single vote. A simple majority of states, equivalent to 26 votes or more, would be needed to win.
Ultimately, the members of Congress elected in the current 2020 elections who would take on this responsibility and would have to come to a decision by the deadline of 20 January 2021, when the constitution dictates that the current presidency comes to an end.
Under the Presidential Succession Act, if Congress still has not declared a presidential or vice-presidential winner by then, the Speaker of the House would serve as acting president. Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat from California, is the current speaker.
What else could happen?
While many states have laws requiring electors in the Electoral College to vote in the way that corresponds with the popular vote of that state, others can vote contrary to the public’s decision.
These voters, known as faithless electors, could tip the balance if the winner has a tight margin when they vote on 14 December.
Faithless electors have been seen in some elections, including in 2016.
However, these votes are rare, as electors are typically loyal members of their respective parties, and it is very likely that such a move that alters the result would be challenged.
Even if this election isn’t evenly split and one man makes it over the line to gain 270 electoral college votes, the path to the White House is likely to be a difficult one with many more legal challenges ahead.
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